November 4, 2012, Sunday, 308

An Uncertain Future

From The Peopling of New York City

Now that the past and present of Jackson Heights have been analyzed, the question that must be raised is whether or not the forces of gentrification can be sustained in the neighborhood amidst the national trends of rising inflation and the collapse of the real estate market.

A McDonald's now infused within the Little Columbia region of Jackson Heights.

According to the New York Times, approximately four million Americans were "late or in foreclosure" with their home mortgages this year, and "an additional three million borrowers may default in the near future" (Bajaj et al., 1). As a result, banks have now become more restrictive towards providing loans to prospective buyers, and, in addition, the President and Congress have been discussing placing limits and oversight on mortgage lenders (Labaton). Combined with the looming recession, investment and housing prices have begun to decrease throughout the area (Bajaj).

While the result of the housing crisis is not yet known, its implication on Jackson Heights may be significant. Decreases in available loans and the scrutiny placed on lenders will likely prohibit lower income residents from coming into the neighborhood in the near future. However, as housing values decline and mortgage investment decreases, gentrification in Jackson Heights may slow down.

With the national rise of inflation, prices for goods and services are being driven up. Historically speaking, in the event of inflation, capital investment in long-term projects -- such as the development of new buildings and major refurbishment of already established buildings -- tends to diminish because investment is placed into more immediate, short term goods, such as food. This seems to suggest that the sustainability of gentrification is limited: if buildings do not continue to be refurnished, and the Historic District cannot be expanded because of a lack of capital and ability to invest in it, gentrification of the neighborhood may stall. Moreover, white middle class residents in the neighborhood then may be drawn to neighborhoods they had been unable to afford during the housing boom.

So while the decline in the housing market may only be temporary, it still may have an effect on a neighborhood in which historically low housing costs allowed new immigrants to establish a residential foothold. Although the end of gentrification might preserve the neighborhood's diversity, it nevertheless may also usher in a new period of neighborhood decline, with its attendant violence, crime, and negative media portrayals, as well.

An example of a franchised corporation, Starbucks, being integrated into Jackson Heights.

Conversely, if the real estate slump is simply a temporary economic hiccup, the process of gentrification and displacement will continue when the city's housing market recovers. The rising cost of local real estate that is associated with continued gentrification is not limited to the displacement of immigrant residents. Another aspect of this is the eventual impact of these rising rates on businesses in the neighborhood. In Jackson Heights, the commercial sector, at the moment, means immigrant-run businesses, examples of which can be found all along Roosevelt Avenue. It is likely that these immigrant-run businesses will also be unable to remain in Jackson Heights. Even businesses that have been successful will most likely have great difficulty keeping up with the rising costs of rent, possibly forcing them to leave Jackson Heights. This phenomenon could accompany the residential decline in the immigrant population of Jackson Heights, and further reinforce gentrification.

The question of what will replace the immigrant businesses is an important one, as well: one idea is that it will be increasingly difficult for small, independent businesses to establish and maintain themselves in the neighborhood (this has already begun to an extent, and examples can be found here). It is possible that the only businesses that will be able to be established and prosper in Jackson Heights will be franchised corporations. The arrival of these businesses would cater well to the wants of a gentrified neighborhood, and so this phenomenon serves as an argument that gentrification will sustain itself in Jackson Heights.

One of the many pictures of the homeless featured on 74thandroosevelt.com

Over the course of examining Jackson Heights, we couldn't help but note how complex the making of the neighborhood is. We wonder: will the neighborhood's diversity persist despite some signs of gentrification, considering the movements to expand certain commercial sections? There is also the fact that ethnic institutions continue to outnumber the franchised corporations in the neighborhood. Equally important to the discussion are the veritable social implications of gentrification. What of the men and women that have lately taken to haunting the streets of Jackson Heights? The website 74thandroosevelt.com documents their lives. In addition, a recent New York Times article noted the appearance of a woman begging near Little India. What does the presence of these individuals signify for the neighborhood?

Ultimately, then, many of the current residents of Jackson Heights face an uncertain future. Their neighborhood may decline or they may be displaced if gentrification continues. The questions then must be raised: what kind of city presents its less affluent residents with such limited choices? What does it say about our city and our nation that it does not guarantee everyone a more decent set of options?

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